Malaysia's Post 13th GE: Issues, Risks & the Myth of Transformation

I was asked the same question over and over again by my peers, clients and the media. I did not give an immediate answer because it is precisely a "post-GE' assessment. There is a need to review and analyze the responses from various stakeholders, parties and observers. There is a necessity to feel  the pulse of the nation before a valid and fact-based observation can be made.

There are a few themes which emerged from the 13th GE. Some of the issues and repercussions are going to be highlighted in point form. Firstly, I would like to highlight the key issues:

1) Division: It is quite clear now that the 13th GE has created more divisions than common grounds. The are more profound political differences between the two coalitions - PR and BN - and their supporters. The whole political discourse has become either black or white. It is either you are with us or you are against us. It was compounded by the fact that the Opposition PR had expected to win the GE but was not successful. On the other hand, the BN regime had singled out the low Chinese support as the main reason for their less than stunning victory.

Hence, the two coalitions are caught in an awkward situation. PR had blamed the electoral system and the alleged frauds as the main reason for their unsuccessful campaign. BN had blamed the Chinese community for their predicament. Both cannot accept anything than an absolute victory at the polls.

Continuous post GE bickering over the election results, now preceded by the petitions, is going to drag on for months to come and is going drag in a lot of their supporters and members as well. This is the first sign of division.

Worse case scenario, the division might even expanded to include the rural-urban divide, ethnicity (Malay versus Non-Malay), alternative versus mainstream media and religion (remotely). On the urban-rural divide, the dialogue has involved both the communitarian and morality dimension. It has become socially unthinkable to take a centrist position without being berated by one's social circle. Supporters from both coalitions have taken to peer pressure and communitarianism to press for support and compliance from their friends, colleagues and peers. This is often coated with both communal and morality arguments.

2) Credibility Crisis. The newly minted PR has won almost 90% of all urban seats, leaving BN with both semi-rural and rural seats. However, any discourse concerning the nation is often dictated by the urbanites. The emergence of the online social tools such as the Twitter, Facebook, Blog, Youtube etc. the dominant discourse is not one the ruling regime will cherish.

On the polling night itself, after news that the BN had successfully formed the Federal government, the public discourse on the Internet had established its foothold, intent, shape and agenda. The BN regime and the institutions and processes created by its regime were going to be discredited so that the PR would gain immediate advantage and influence over the minds of the urbanites.

Even with a comfortable mandate and majority, the BN is going to find a hard time restoring its credibility if it cannot influence the discourse. BN might continue to rule but the PR would continue to hold on to their influence and electoral gains and hopefully to build on them.

What is worse and damaging is the credibility crisis has grown internationally. Supporters and leaders of the PR coalition are taking their grouses to the UN, the White House, the UK government, Australia and other international platforms. A number of fraud allegations were made online and they were quickly replicated and shared out by the followers.

The coalition led by de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim was quick to respond with the "Blackout 505" rallies throughout the country to blame the coalition's defeat on electoral fraud and a partial Election Commission. Soon, the fault lines expanded to include the First Past the Post electoral system, gerrymandering, imbalanced rural-urban voters ratio, indelible ink and weightage and others. Calls were made by the pro-PR NGOs for the EC heads to step down.

All these allegations were made before the election petitions were filed and up till today there was no incriminating evidence on illegal Bangladeshi voters or actual blackout at the counting centre. Nonetheless, the intention was clear - to ruin the credibility of the victor in the elections and to cast doubts on the electoral system, agency, players and rules. Here, the PR has successfully taken a higher moral ground and has won the perception war on the back of the newly elected government's credibility.

It is important to note that because the discourse was dominated by largely the pro-PR urbanites, the allegations made and rumours spread by the PR to gain electoral advantage during the campaign period were never challenged or questioned or brought up in any of the civil discourse.

To make the matter worse, the BN had actually committed various money related offenses during the campaign period. Most of them were committed via their 'supporters' and not directly through their candidates or parties. The electoral abuses are going to haunt the regime in the coming days and even leading up to the next GE.

3) Directionless. We can positively expect the political bickering to continue in the coming months if not years leading to the next GE. PR has made impressive gains not only in the Parliament but also in most of the state assemblies. While we rejoice at the birth of the two party system, the real two party system can only be beneficial if both coalitions know when to bicker and when to cooperate. Perpetual bickering is the most likely scenario here. Mutual competition and opposition is going to happen on all policy decisions and this can be really distractive to governance.

On the aspect of economic management, there is a need for a bipartisan cooperation since the BN has control over finances and the Federal administration while PR is leading the two biggest economies in Malaysia; Penang and Selangor. On economic competitiveness, the country must find viable solutions to a vast array of issues e.g. finding new economic frontiers, fostering a vibrant economy to attract more local and foreign investments, create more valued added jobs, solving the income bottlenecks, moving up the value chain and technology adoption, regional positioning and strengthening trade.

A number of these issues cannot be addressed without ironing out the political differences between these two coalitions. The political risk posed by the bickering coalitions is enough to turn off any potential mid-to-long term commitment and investment in the country.

There is a danger of the BN government being selective in its economic direction and stimulation. Some hawkish leaders in UMNO are already calling for a tit-for-tat action against the Chinese community for rejecting their hand of "friendship". Utusan Malaysia, the conservative UMNO mouthpiece, has been publishing provocative headlines on the Chinese voters' snub against the UMNO-led ruling regime. The same leaders have suggested to the Najib administration to focus more and reward the Malay, Indian and Sabah and Sarawak natives for supporting the regime.

If Najib's submits his administration to the internal pressure, it might spells more instability for the private sector investment in Malaysia. There is going to be a greater outflow of funds and talents overseas.

There is little to differentiate the economic model of both PR and BN; although the former claimed to be more credible and accountable. However, there has not been any major institutional or systemic transformation in both Selangor and Penang over the last 5 years. During the 13th GE, both coalitions had stuck to the populist policy by promising more grants and subsidies to the lower income group.

There was little mention of transformation, reformation and overhaul of the socio-economic model and governance. There was no mention of their respective foreign policy direction. Hence, it is suffice to note that the socio-economic model and the foreign policy direction would not be undergoing any major transformation apart from the check-and-balance e.g. open tender, counter wastage and corruption proposed by the PR.

4) Myth of Transformation. It would be foolhardy to expect any major transformation or reforms after the 13th GE. In fact, the country is facing a risk of more hardline executive decisions, legislations (e.g. control of the Internet, sedition law, treason etc) and enforcement from the administration. In Malaysia, any political reform or liberalization is interpreted by the conservatives as a sign of weakness and losing its political influence.We might actually face a government that is less wiling to reach out to its perceived foes especially those who did not support the regime in the last GE.

Reformists in the BN might face a tougher time trying to convince the conservatives that more reforms are going to win back the urban support. It is left to be seen if the conservatives are going to call for a change of leadership in UMNO. There was a suggestion that UMNO needs a stronger and decisive leader. The period of Mahathirism is still being looked at with envy by his successors. Dr M had consistently delivered a 2/3 majority for the coalition throughout his 22-year tenure as the President/Prime Minister.

All programmes and measures that are seen to be accommodative to the Chinese community might be reviewed if the conservatives have their way. Just a moment ago, the Minister of Tourism Nazri Aziz has threatened a law suit against a Chinese school, SRJKC Chin Woo, for occupying a piece of land belonged to the ministry. A lack of representation in the Cabinet means the community is going to face a tougher time in bringing such issue to the Cabinet to be reviewed.

On the PR side,  their supporters have been berating any criticism against the coalition. They argued that it is still too early to press the coalition on governance and policy decision. They pointed out that the focus should be on the regime change. Since the GE, the coalition has yet to lay down their expectations and key targets for the 3 key states. PR especially the PKR is expected to go through some turbulence in their party polls this year.

For now, it is fair to say that PR's focus is going to be on efforts to continue to discredit the BN and to destabilize UMNO. The dynamics are quite substantial. It was reported that Gua Musang MP and UMNO veteran Tengku Razaleigh is again pitting himself as a PM candidate. It might be the case that the proposition was announced by his hardcore supporters rather than the man himself. On the PR side, it is highly unlikely that it is going to be anyone else but Anwar Ibrahim. Anwar is the DAP's choice and the latter holds the most Parliamentary seats among the 3 component parties. Any dissenters from UMNO and its alliance would prefer to align themselves to Muhyiddin Yasin rather than Ku Li.

Horse trading, bickering and party elections are going to take up the entire 2013. Transformation, for the nation and for the common good of all, is going to take a temporary backseat - hopefully not too long a wait.

5) Whither Reforms. It is time for PR leaders and elected representatives to realise that any change to the electoral system, Election Commission, federal agencies and re-delineation can only materialize if there is a bipartisan effort and common agreement. But who is going to take a lead and who would be allowed to lead? In the case of Malaysia, if BN give in to any of PR demand it would be seen as a sign of weakness vice versa. Hence, the DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang had made a number of good suggestions to reform the political system but would fall short at taking the first step to implement it at the DAP controlled state assembly.

It is unfortunate that both sides lacked leaders and elected representatives who could reach out to the other side and at the same time would enjoy the trust of their own party/coalition. It is a fact that both sides would have to sit down to identify and agree on the terms of governance and reforms needed to allow the two coalitions to cooperate in the parliament and state assemblies. Both coalitions cannot afford for the country to fail due to their excessive and unending bickering and frictions. Elections are not supposed to be a competition to celebrate the winners only. It is about the act to elect the people we can entrust to run the country on our behalf.

It is becoming quite difficult to appoint or identify any third party to help coordinate any bipartisan effort. The civil society is devoid of any credible, respectable and sincere centrists who could gain the trust of both coalitions to play the role of moderators. The blame game, peer pressure and overzealous partisanship have often come in between these centrists and the politicians. Most of the civil society activists had voluntarily or pressured to take side. The whole situation has contributed to a lack of political literacy in the country.

In summary, it is going to be a tough time for the nation to identify and chart its direction within the current political situation. For Malaysia to move forward, its citizens would have to take emotion out of the whole political discourse and start to understand the basic role of the electoral process, the real meaning of democracy and check-and-balance. Politicians need to understand that winning is not the only thing in an electoral process.

There are more important questions to answer: Is this nation going to become a better one in the next five years? If yes, what can I do for my nation? How?

Rakhine State Conflicts and Its Spillover to Malaysia

The riots are a series of ongoing conflicts primarily between ethnic Rakhine Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims in northern Rakhine State, Myanmar. The ethnic conflicts were ignited in October last year when a Buddhist woman was raped and murdered by a group of Bengalis. 

The conflicts have spread quickly to other parts of Myanmar e.g. Meiktila, Okpho and Gyobingauk Township. Many people and observers were too quick to call it a clash between Muslim and Buddhist. It is very convenient to put a religious label on the conflicts without looking deeper at the root cause of the tension in Rakhine state. The Buddhist Rakhine community were upset that the Rohingyas had occupied their land and consume their limited resources. Competition for jobs had made their relationship even more spiteful.

Using a religious label has made it very convenient for the Buddhist majority to urge the Myanmar government to intervene in the conflicts. Historically, it was a geopolitical issue which involved the status of the Rohingyas. The Myanmarese government classifies the Rohingya as "immigrants" to Myanmar, and thus not eligible for citizenship. According to the United Nations, the Rohingya are one of the world's most persecuted minorities. 

They are subject to restrictions on education, marriage, reproduction and property ownership, as well as other repressive restrictions and abuses. At the moment, the Myanmarese government is considering allowing the Rohingyas to have two children, reviewing its single child policy for the group classified as "immigrants". 

The issue of Rohingyas is going to put the socio-political reforms in a difficult position. It is not a religious conflict but a serious human rights issue for the government to address. Previously, President Thein Sein had suggested the relocation of 700,000 Rohingyas to other countries. The proposal has been shot down by the community and also the neighbouring Bangladesh, the place where most of Rohingyas originated.  

One thing for sure, the Myanmarese government cannot wish away the Rohingyas. A modern and democratic Myanmar must seek to address the issue based on humanitarian grounds. They would need to consider the historical background of the community and work out a workable solution to integrate the community to the larger and multiethnic Myanmarese society.

It is very unfortunate that the riots had spread to the whole of Myanmar, targeting all Muslims instead of the just the Rohingyas. The riots have spread to Malaysia too. There is a growing number of Myanmar workers in Malaysia. An official figure has put it at 400,000. Almost 10% of them are Rohingyas. 

The government must manage the riots and conflicts carefully. Any missteps may turn the conflicts into an unnecessary 'religious' riots involving other bystanders as well. We must not allow the conflicts to be labelled as a religious one. It is clearly an internal issue of Myanmar. 

Malaysia should provide a calming solution to the conflicts. The authorities must act sternly against any migrant workers trying to create chaos in our country but the action must be taken in accordance to our law and must be administered fairly and justly.

It is definite NOT a religious confrontation. It is not a local issue for us. It is time for the government to review our over dependence on low-skilled and cheap foreign labour regardless of their nationality. 

We need to start create jobs for our own people.

The Undoing of Paul Law, the Minister at the PM's Office

Since his appointment to the 13th Malaysian Cabinet, Paul Low, the ex-President of Transparency International Malaysia, has been a constant target of critics and the Opposition leaders. Paul was told not to become a messenger to the administration by none other than the DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang.

Paul was criticized for saying that he would bring up the establishment of the IPCMC to the weekly cabinet meeting, stopping short at making his stand clear on the proposed institution. 

He was again criticized by DAP's Tony Pua for saying that "the only difference between the two (agencies) was merely in their names". Pua said: "It is deeply disappointing that since appointed the 'transparency minister', Paul Low has now reversed his earlier position to argue that the special complaints commission in the form of the EAIC is now sufficient to regulate the enforcement authorities, particularly the police force."

Low has refuted Tony's criticism of him. Low said he had said that "IPCMC" and "EAIC" were only names, but the key was to "arrive at an independent agency that has the resources, clout and scope of influence to do the job effectively", since the weaknesses of the EAIC had been identified.

"Clearly, even a teenager would be able to conclude that my intention was never to equate the EAIC in its current form to that of the IPCMC proposed by the royal commission of inquiry or RCI (on improving the police force) in 2005," Low said.

He added that even Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak and members of the cabinet acknowledged the weaknesses of the EAIC, and were backing a study and consultation for a detailed proposal to improve the commission, including possibly adopting some of the RCI's earlier proposals.

What has gone wrong for Paul Low? I would call it "too eager" to stamp his mark and make his presence in the cabinet. Paul had accepted the appointment without considering a few things:

1) What does he want to achieve in the Najib Administration?

2) What are the expectations from the BN regime on his appointment?

3) Can he continue to pursue his causes and struggles upon his appointment into the cabinet?

4) What are the immediate conditions he would like the PM to look at before accepting the appointment?

A number of critics are already talking about his early demise from the cabinet. Some said he won't last six months in his job. Is the prophecy accurate? We will find out but I do not underestimate Paul's resolve to remain in the cabinet. 

It is not a secret that he has to compromise his stand to accommodate the team spirit and consensus in the cabinet. He appears to be in the minority. As long as the majority refuses to see or acknowledge the need to change, there is little that Low can hope to achieve.  

He has been targeted because the Opposition cannot afford for Low to be successful in his position. He was brought in to shore up the credibility of the regime. Hence, the Opposition leaders and their supporters are going to make him a top target.

So far, Paul has been his own undoing. He has spoken up too early and too much. He should have kept a low profile, study his environment and understand the issues before giving interview after interview that would expose his vulnerability rather than helping to shore up his presence or profile.

From now, Paul has to walk on a tight rope if he wants to survive and hope to eventually contribute towards a better governance. 

He must ask himself a basic question: Can the BN regime be saved?

Perception is Not BN's Only Problem

The Government needs to learn how to better deal with negative perceptions perpetuated online against it, said Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak.

He said it must address this "weakness" as many among the public have been misled by concerted efforts to discredit the Barisan Nasional-led administration.

"Perception can be formed in many ways. Maybe not through face-to-face meetings, but through Facebook," he added.

However, the PM should quickly acknowledge that perception is not the only problem for BN. Perception cannot be created in a vacuum. It can only be created from a silly action, overzealous behaviour, a bad policy, a mediocre leadership and a spiteful speech. 

No doubt the Opposition is very good at tarnishing the image of his administration but they would not have been so successful if his government respects the rule of law, makes responsible policies and policy decisions, appoints the right officers and leaders, upholds the highest integrity in political leadership and focuses on good governance.

From Lynas, Scorpene, PKFZ to NFC, the Najib administration has not been able to provide a closure to any of them. These cases were further garnished with custodial deaths, institutional corruption, overzealous racially hyper strung party-controlled media and a sheer disrespect for the people when ruling politicians abused their power. The recent ban on PKR's Nurul Izzah to enter Sabah is a case example.

If Najib cannot change and correct these weaknesses, his administration is going to face the face or worse defeat in the 14th GE. The verdict is already out there. 

However, in the interest of promoting and supporting a two-party system I hope the PM will gather enough political will to go for a dramatic and significant overhaul of his party and coalition. My stand on supporting good candidates still stand. Similarly, I would like to call out to him to appoint and attract more good people into his government.

The Opposition thrives on running down his good reform measures but he must be headstrong to go ahead with them regardless. They will amplified by 1000 times his weaknesses and missteps. This is a new reality in the Malaysian politics. 

It is going to get harder if Najib misses the elephant in the room again. 

Is Adam Adli a Good Role Model for the Youths and a Malaysian Hero?

Apart from calling for the end of PTPTN and to overthrow the BN federal government after the 13th General Election, what has Adam contributed to youth development? I read he was suspended from UPSI. Adam landed in hot soup after he lowered a flag with Najib’s picture on it at the Umno headquarters in PWTC and replaced it with a students’ movement banner. 

Did he do the right thing? Would Adam be more effective if he were to lead the way for other youths esp. the Malay to build their capacity, obtain a good education and then contribute towards changing the mindset of the community?

Can Adam help to open up minds of the Malay heartland? 

Would you allow your children to follow his footsteps while you are cheering him on? Or would you advice him to complete his studies first and then contribute to the reforms movement?

Can Adam contribute towards the political dialogue and policy discourse through meaningful engagements? Can his suggestions and ideas (if any) be taken seriously? 

Finally, does Adam represent the voice of youths in Malaysia since a number of young Malaysians want to be the next Adam Adli? Or he might end up being a pawn of political forces? 

In this video, Adam said he represents all youths. Can he speak up for the youths who might not be sharing his political preference?

Is Adam Adli a good role model for the youths and a Malaysian hero?

What say you? 

Lim Kit Siang Should Hand Out an Olive Branch to Abdul Ghani & Appoint Him as a DAP Senator

DAP veteran Lim Kit Siang has expressed disappointment over Prime Minister Najib Abdul Razak's decision not to admit former Johor menteri besar Abdul Ghani Othman into his new cabinet.

"It is most unfair and ungrateful for Umno leaders to drop Ghani like a tonne of bricks after he failed to defeat me in Gelang Patah," said Lim (right).

Lim garnered 54,284 votes in the May 5 general election, while Ghani, in his first ever electoral defeat, drew 39,522, votes.

Lim said he had openly acknowledged that Ghani had made an invaluable contribution to the development of Johor and that his experience should be tapped as a cabinet member.


He said he was surprised that there are those within Umno resisting Ghani's return to national politics, citing Former Barisan Elected Representatives Association (Mubarak) as an example.

Mubarak had raised its objection to appointing those who lost in the general election to government posts, which Lim argued was aimed at Ghani.

If Kit Siang thinks so highly of Abdul Ghani, he should seek the permission of his party's CEC to appoint Abdul Ghani as a Senator on his party's quota in Penang.

I am sure the appointment would allow Abdul Ghani to continue contributing to nation building and help the DAP to reach out to the Malay community.

It would be a waste and a mistake to watch such a good leader fading away from the national politics. 

It would be more productive and the right thing to do for Kit Siang to hand over an olive branch to Abdul Ghani and to save his political career for our common good. 

I trust the good judgement of Kit Siang.   

Democratic Reforms: Recognize Opposition Leaders & PR Can Take the Lead

DAP has urged that sweeping parliamentary reforms be put at the top of the agenda following the 13th general election, including making the position of opposition leader equal to that of a minister in the cabinet.

“The parliamentary opposition leader should be provided with adequate staff to carry out his duties - at least two political secretaries, one private secretary and three search assistants,” said DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang at a press conference in Kuala Lumpur this afternoon.

He added that the opposition leader should also enjoy the same perks and privileges accorded to a minister, on top of being consulted  in the arrangement of parliamentary businesses.

“The elevation of the position and status of the parliamentary opposition leader is in keeping with those of a normal democratic country, where alternation of power in every general election is taken as a routine exercise of the democratic rights of voters and not as a national catastrophe...” he said.

I support Lim's call to accord the necessary recognition, perks and privileges to the Opposition Leader in Parliament. If PM Najib is serious about his reform pledge post 13th GE, this should be an easy step to take. 

The provision of resources to employ research assistants can help to enhance the quality of debate in the Parliament.

Hence, I would like to urge both PR and BN state assemblies to adopt the same approach too and accord the right recognition to the Opposition Leader of the house. 

To take it a step further, I would like to urge PR state assemblies to make the first step. I am sure this might nudge BN harder to make the same move. This is definitely the right stet to take.